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Topic for August 2022 - Growing the Economy

    • 88 posts
    August 7, 2022 1:48 PM BST

    Our agenda this month is:

     

    Growing the economy in the face of inflation and other crises.
    Who do we believe? What would we do?

     

    Was Boris getting it right? Should the Conservative Party have got rid of him at this time? Have we added a political crisis to the existing crises?

     

    What do we think of the economic policies of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak?

     

    What are the multiple crises we’ve got?

    • Rebuilding the economy after Covid
    • Level of debt, increasing debt interest rates, reducing exchange rate
    • Inflation (primarily energy, food and supply chain driven)
    • A shortage of workers in some sectors
    • A potential price/wage spiral
    • A potential summer/autumn of discontent with threatened strikes
    • Monies to support Ukraine’s defence
    • Monies to support economic sanctions against Russia
    • The significant investments needed to deliver Levelling Up
    • Climate Change and its increasing effects and costs now and over next 30 years
    • Stagnant Productivity
    • Changing/worsening relations with China and possible economic impacts
    • International economic problems and their effect on us
    • A broken Social Care and broken NHS
    • A housing crisis
    • Continuing arguments about the impact of Brexit
    • A crippled Government unable to act decisively for 6 weeks. Plus, the potential for a leader elected by the members against the choice of the MPs. 

    Any others?

     

    Why isn’t the economy growing at the moment and what are the current OBR forecasts for future growth? Have we got a set of exceptional conditions e.g. strong demand but supply chain issues plus other multiple crises above?

     

    Are we in an economic emergency? Have we got blinkers on, expecting business as usual, or have we got to take the pain? 

     

    Would Liz Truss’s tax cuts/reversing tax rises grow the economy or not? Would all tax cuts stoke inflation, or are there some that wouldn’t? Is it credible/wise to extend debt repayment further? Is the Treasury orthodoxy good or bad?

     

    Has Rishi got the balance right with investment tax cuts now and personal tax cuts later? Has he done enough to date to ease the cost-of-living crisis? What is the plan for driving inflation down?

     

    Would a period of recession be a good thing to get rid of inflation?

     

    What would we do to both grow the economy and drive inflation out? Would our previous ideas on Productivity etc. contribute?

     

    Is the Conservative party damaging its reputation for economic competence? Can they win the next election?

     


    This post was edited by # Probably42 at August 7, 2022 1:48 PM BST
    • 88 posts
    August 26, 2022 4:42 PM BST

    The output from Probably42 Discussion Groups Deep Thought and Zero Gravity is now available at  Economy - Growing the economy in the face of Inflation and other Crises 


    This post was edited by # Probably42 at August 26, 2022 4:45 PM BST